Thread: Wet tomorrow
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Old May 26th 07, 04:18 PM posted to uk.sci.weather
Martin Rowley Martin Rowley is offline
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Default Wet tomorrow


On 26 May 2007 07:21:31 -0700, Tudor Hughes wrote

Susan Powell, R4 1257 pm, mentioned there may well be 2 to 3
inches of rain over southern England tomorrow and Monday. We'll see.


... Just tried to work out what sort of rainfall we'd get here
(Bracknell) based on latest output as far as I can see them:

GFS deterministic implies ~15mm by end Monday
GFES (ensemble) ~10 mm average, with a 'high' in one member of ~15 mm
(based on 06Z)
UKMO ~ 20 mm

(all 'eye-balled' off charts, apart from the deterministic, so some
'play' must be allowed for.

The GFS throws the strongest ascent across the west/central Channel into
Normandy so the heaviest point rainfall will probably be in those
regions (and adjacent - i.e. SW England), but the amounts for us I guess
will be governed by where the rain-bands end up, their speed of
translation as the low slips to the south of us etc. Still a lot to go
wrong but the general story looks pretty solid - as you point out, the
temperatures disappointing for many.

(.. and my MSF clock still isn't updating!)

Martin.