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Old May 31st 07, 06:38 AM posted to uk.sci.weather
Darren Prescott Darren Prescott is offline
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First recorded activity by Weather-Banter: Jul 2006
Posts: 124
Default Today's model interpretation (31/05/07)

Here is a summary of the NWP output for 12z on Monday.
Issued 0536z, 31st May 2007.

High pressure will be in charge for the first half of next week, with all
areas seeing drier conditions than of late. Although the winds won't be from
a warm source, under largely clear skies temperatures should still reach the
"warm" category in many areas, although eastern areas exposed to the onshore
breeze may stay cooler. The models then suggest the warm weather continuing
towards the weekend, although possibly with showers moving up from the south
as the high declines.

Analysis and evolution to T+120 via GFS
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn001.png
http://85.214.49.20/pics/avnpanel1.gif
Lows pressure lies to the NW, leading to southerlies and SE'lies over the
UK. By tomorrow low pressure covers the English Channel, ledaing to
easterlies and SE'lies across the UK. Saturday sees a trough over western
areas of the UK (with SSE'lies) and light winds for the eastern half. By
Sunday England and Wales lie under a ridge, while a trough over Ireland
brings southerlies and SE'lies elsewhere.

T+120 synopsis
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn12015.png /
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn1201.png
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rjma1201.gif /
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rukm1201.gif
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Recm1201.gif /
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/nogapse_cartes.php
The jetstream chart shows a marked trough to the west and a large ridge over
the UK and most of Europe. At the 500hPa level there's a weak upper trough
over the UK, while MetO has an upper col over the UK. ECM shows a ridge over
northern areas of the UK, while GEM brings a shallow upper low over southern
England. NGP shows lower heights and a ridge over the UK.
At the surface GFS brings northerlies for most with a ridge over Ireland.
MetO shows a high over Scotland and Ireland with northerlies elsewhere,
while ECM brings NE'lies for all with highs to the NNE and SW. GEM places
high pressure to the south of Ireland, with NW'lies for most. Finally NGP
has a high to the north and NNE'lies as a result.

Evolution to T+168
ECM shows NE'lies on days 6 and 7 as high pressure persists to the north.
GFS brings light winds for all as high pressure crosses the UK on day 6,
followed by NE'lies for most on day 7 as the high moves over Scotland.

Looking further afield
Days 8 to 10 bring increasingly light NE'lies over the UK as the high to the
north slowly declines.
GFS shows NE'lies on day 8 and ENE'lies on day 9, with pressure falling over
France. By day 10 a deep low lies tothe SW, leading to southerlies and
SE'lies for the UK.

Ensemble analysis
(http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/da...ia/ensdia.html - last
night's 18z)
The ensembles still show a warm spell on the way.