Weather Banter - View Single Post

Robb C. Overfield · June 8th 07, 06:59 PM posted to uk.sci.weather

On a tatty piece of sub-ether Dave Cornwell at
said...

wrote in message
oups.com...
he early warning of torrential rain for the southeast prompted me to
look at the European radar. Hardly anything significant at that time
so clearly the experts expected a development rather than movement of
existing storms.

And weren't they spot on with the area and intensity! Brilliantly
done.

Jack
---------------------
Absolutely NOT I'm afraid. I am right on the edge of the 60% at risk area
and we got 1mm ! The rain was much further east than predicted and there was
virtually none in London and the eastern suburbs. Upminster 1mm, City
Airport - trace.

Dave, Laindon, S.Essex

Never mind Dave, you can be the one to predict these risk areas next. Then
we can say YOU got it wrong. Trying to predict these areas 12-24 hours in
advance cannot be very easy, even given the information on offer.

One of the definitions of a forecast is "to gauge or estimate (weather,
statistics, etc) in advance". That=3Fs all a weather forecast is, an
estimate of what is going to happen, given the data before the forecasters
at any one time. As that data changes so the forecast will change...

Personally, people complaining about weather forecasts being wrong get
right up my rather ample nasal passages, a bit like a bad smell and
there's enough of those about this city as it is.
--
Rob C. Overfield
Hull