Weather Banter - View Single Post

Dave Cornwell · June 9th 07, 12:00 AM posted to uk.sci.weather

"Robb C. Overfield" wrote in message
...
On a tatty piece of sub-ether Dave Cornwell at
said...

wrote in message
oups.com...
he early warning of torrential rain for the southeast prompted me to
look at the European radar. Hardly anything significant at that time
so clearly the experts expected a development rather than movement of
existing storms.

And weren't they spot on with the area and intensity! Brilliantly
done.

Jack
---------------------
Absolutely NOT I'm afraid. I am right on the edge of the 60% at risk area
and we got 1mm ! The rain was much further east than predicted and there
was
virtually none in London and the eastern suburbs. Upminster 1mm, City
Airport - trace.

Dave, Laindon, S.Essex

Never mind Dave, you can be the one to predict these risk areas next. Then
we can say YOU got it wrong. Trying to predict these areas 12-24 hours in
advance cannot be very easy, even given the information on offer.

One of the definitions of a forecast is "to gauge or estimate (weather,
statistics, etc) in advance". That=3Fs all a weather forecast is, an
estimate of what is going to happen, given the data before the forecasters
at any one time. As that data changes so the forecast will change...

Personally, people complaining about weather forecasts being wrong get
right up my rather ample nasal passages, a bit like a bad smell and
there's enough of those about this city as it is.
--
Rob C. Overfield
Hull
--------------------
That's a bit harsh, Rob and doesn't really do you justice as a contributor
to this group. I am in no way critiscising the forecast, merely pointing out
from a scientific standpoint that it wasn't spot on for the areas as the
post had intimated , most of Essex not receiving the high amounts predicted.
One thing I have learnt from contributing to this group for 6years is that
the weather is difficult to forecast and the professionals and experts on
here can do it far better than myself.
Dave