On Tue, 12 Jun 2007 17:45:37 GMT, STUART ONYECHE wrote:

GFS is going for well over 100 mm rain in the next three days in the
northern pennines,

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs96sum.gif

the residents of Carlisle must be worried being only 2 years since the
Jan 05 floods

No, as Paul said the ground is fairly dry and the fells are very good
sponge. Previous to the 2005 floods it had been very wet for the previous
few weeks and the ground was absolutely saturated. Broadly 75mm fell in
48hrs but Shap got all but 4mm of 200mm in 48hrs.

100mm over three days will bring the rivers up but not to major flood
levels. The normal flood plains might get wet but that's about all, that's
why one should not build on flood plains...

Also since 2005 they have added a good 2' to the flood defences as well,
which must be pretty nearly finished now, last time I past they where
spreading topsoil and landscaping the levees.

--
Cheers
Dave. pam is missing e-mail