"Jon O'Rourke" wrote in message
...

"Dave Cornwell" wrote in
message
. uk...


Thanks Jon - I know it's difficult at the moment. It has just felt
things
have conspired against me! Been expecting heavy showers all week that
have
just missed me, often by just a mile or so, which is of course the
nature
of
showers. Fed up watering the garden every night! Today I do feel the
forecast given out has turned out wrong in terms of the timing.

Guess it depends which forecast you've seen, I tend to only look at the
TAFs
! Either way I think it's fair to say that getting the timing and detail
correct in the south today has been tricky, particulalry with respect to
the
intensity and aerial coverage of the rain/showers in the SE. The midday
ASXX
shows an upper warm front just off the south coast at midday with the
somewhat complex development in the channel which is causing the problems
http://www.weather.org.uk/charts/UKCpf000.gif
The upper warm front accounting for much of the medium and upper cloud
layers across the SE which until recently had given mostly light patchy
rain, although some heavier convective elements were in evidence earlier
to
the north of London. Less in the way of this upper and medium cloud would
likely have resulted in more significant showers as seen to the north and
west.

Looking ahead the midday GFS shows the potential for some very high totals
on the slow moving occlusion tomorrow as per the early warning. However I
suspect the inter-run and inter-model differences we're seeing regarding
the
handling of it will be causing further headaches.

GFS 3hour totals to 15Z on Monday http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/Rmgfs273.gif

Pity my poor aunt from Spain who's in Bournemouth for 10 days. I did
suggest
she didn't bother coming ! At least Tuesday's looking like a nice day :-)

Jon.


Drove from Wokingham to Belmont (S London), M3/M25 between 11 and 12z, and
encountered very heavy rain in places, and plenty of water on the roads,
likewise on return 18-1930z, in addition low cloud down on the Downs near
Riegate.

--
Bernard Burton
Wokingham, Berkshire, UK.

Satellite images at:
www.woksat.info/wwp.html
or
www.btinternet.com/~wokingham.weather/wwp.html