Hi all,

The latest short TAFs at EGNX and EGBB going for a PROB30 of +TSRA and TSGR
at EGCC. Having a look at the model fields it seems as if deep convection is
reliant on the ascent induced by the approaching shortwave trough currently
coming into Cornwall. The subsequent ridge preceding it is surpressing
convection here and 11Z Watnall ascent should show a cap of sorts aloft.
26/23Z sonde data is scarce, as is 27/06Z data, so this maybe a reason for
the cautious approach to thunderstorms (?).

http://www.sat.dundee.ac.uk/pdus/BW/...71200BW1_g.jpg - 12Z WV image
showing trough to SW

Joe