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This forecast summary is my *PERSONAL OPINION* of how the weather may unfold
next week. I will take no responsibility whatsoever for any actions arising from
its use. It is provided freely in the spirit of freedom and the great love for
meteorology that I personally enjoy and wish to share freely with others.
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Summary valid for Sunday 04/07/04 to Saturday 10/07/04
TOI (time of issue) Thursday 01/07/04 1830 UK local time This summary is based
on a quick appraisal of the GFS, JMA, ECMWF, UKMO, FAX, and ENS (NCEP ensemble)
labelled charts available from the superb
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten
Confidence for next week is only moderate, mainly due to a rather nondescript
slack surface pressure pattern. However, for a lot of the time a sharpening
upper trough just to the west of the UK looks like dominating the weather
despite relatively high pressure. This means a continuation of the changeable
weather is likely but details will be impossible to predict until at best 24
hours ahead due to the showery nature of the precipitation.
On Sunday a shallow low and a spell of rain will move east across England and
Wales. Southern counties more likely to see the rain. The rest of the country
will have sunny spells and showers, some heavy. Winds turning light everywhere
and temperatures around normal.
On Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday winds will remain light in fairly high
pressure. Mornings could well start sunny but scattered and slow moving showers
will develop during the days. The showers are likely to become heavy with
torrential downpours and the possibility of hail and thunder. Some places will
escape the showers, especially coastal areas and perhaps some SW parts. Local
wind convergence will enhance and focus shower activity as will sea breezes. The
London heat island could trigger some big storms too as well as the Scottish
highlands and other northern hills. Temperatures will remain around normal but
warm in some eastern areas in sunshine before storms.
At the end of the week it looks like another Atlantic low will spread rain into
many western and northern areas, although the SE may well turn dry for a while.
Temperatures staying around normal and winds light to moderate.
Prospects for four consecutive completely dry days for haymaking in the UK are
moderate at best, favoured areas will be coastal strips and in the SW but even
here confidence is low.
As always this and previous forecasts are available at
http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/weeklydiscussions.htm
This forecast was brought to you from the now world famous meteorological office
at Haytor on Dartmoor where old fashioned values of service are alive and
thriving in the beautiful Devon countryside.
Cheers,
Will.
--
" The best things in life are not things "
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A COL BH site in East Dartmoor at Haytor, Devon 310m asl (1017 feet).
mailto:
www: http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk
DISCLAIMER - All views and opinions expressed by myself are personal
and do not necessarily represent those of my employer.
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