On 24 Jul, 14:43, Tudor Hughes wrote:
On Jul 23, 12:54 pm, wrote:
On 23 Jul, 11:50, Les Crossan
venthisk wrote:
wrote:
"England under water: scientists confirm global warming link to
increased rain"
By Michael McCarthy Environment Editor
The Independent
Published: 23 July 2007
(extract)
"...The study is being published in the journal Nature on Wednesday,
and its details are under embargo and cannot be reported until then.
But its main findings have caused a stir
Wasn't it last year that GW was going to cause more *drought* in the UK
with this country set to become a Southern Mediterranean scorched earth
climate??? And, erm, more hurricanes - which seem to be in very short
supply.
Well, it might be said that this was a prescient long range weather
forecast by John Mitchell.
He's now Chief Boffin at the Met office isn't he?
Why global warming could take Britain by storm
07 November 1992
by Paul Simons, New Scientist
" John Mitchell, head of climate modelling at the Met Office's Hadley
Centre, thinks global warming could precipitate storms nearer to
Europe in the eastern Atlantic. This means they will arrive in Britain
in a far more powerful and dangerous state: more water will have
evaporated from seas that have warmed with the climate, in turn
causing wider variations in atmospheric moisture and temperature, and
so stronger winds. Because such storms will occur nearer to the
continent, forecasters will have less time to spot them, predict their
paths and give the appropriate warnings. "
http://environment.newscientist.com/...ason/mg...Hide quoted text -
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That article is 15 years old and is concerned with
deep lows and gale- or hurricane-force winds presumably in autumn or
winter. I can't quite see its relevance to the situation that caused
the recent floods in which a low developed from the near continent and
was quite weak, purely as a circulatory feature. The problem was the
rain it produced, not the winds.
Tudor Hughes, Warlingham, Surrey.- Hide quoted text -
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True, although it could be argued that the current floods are a series
of multiple weather events going back to May, rather than one single
event.
The area of flooding also seems to be wider than the examples of
similar floods often quoted to support the "natural variability"
thesis.
Also, there appears to be an unusually high recurrence rate for such
events since 2000.