On 26 Jul, 09:20, "Philip Eden" philipATweatherHYPHENukDOTcom wrote:
"Graham P Davis" wrote :



STUART ONYECHE wrote:

Is the latest rainfall event really unprescedented? Particularly
interested in whether there have been similar summer events in terms of
both spatial area of rainfall combined with magnitude of the rain. Media/
politicians are too keen to add recent events to the GW bandwagon,
conveniently ignoring the point that with GW our summers are supposed to
get drier, as far as I understand it. I thought the extreme rain events
would be autumn/winter synoptic scale events such as those in 2000, not
summer synoptic scale. Attributing the latest events also to GW makes me
increasingly lose faith in the GW science.

Yes, GW is forecast to give us drier summers, but that is because there
will
be fewer rainfall events in summer. However, single rainfall events are
likely to be heavier due to the increased warmth.

Although having said that -- and I offer this as an observation only, and
not as evidence of anything else -- this summer's individual rainfall events
all have several precedents, whereas the aggregate rainfall for May,
June and July, averaged over England and Wales, has easily broken
the previous record.

It's also worth noting that the synoptic character of MJJ combined
has also been unprecedentedly cyclonic, and there is a strong
correlation between cyclonicity and aggregate rainfall. So the question
I would ask is, "where has that extreme cyclonicity come from?" Not
"where has all the rain come from?"

Philip- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

I believe it to be Air Pressure averaging out over large timescale to
around 1015mb, which is also part of the North Atlantic Oscillation.

I have been keeping pressure reading for some time now, and Air
Pressure always seems to pay its debt. When I started looking further
back as far the mid 1970's I found there was a period around 1975/6
where the average annual pressure was around 1018 - 1020mb. Over a
longer period of time, pressure always wants to average out at around
1015mb for the South West of England.

Also, all this global warming evidence seems to be based on surface
temperatures, has there been any evidence that the upper atmosphere is
either cooling or getting warmer than say 30 years ago?