July 30th 07, 01:26 PM
posted to uk.sci.weather
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First recorded activity by Weather-Banter: Jan 2007
Posts: 1,720
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Today's model interpretation (30/07/07)
"Darren Prescott" wrote in message
...
Here is a summary of the NWP output for 12z on Friday.
Issued 0534z, 30th July 2007
The change in pattern has arrived. The end of the week will be sunny and
warm across England and Wales, although Scotland and Northern Ireland are
more likely to be cloudy. A weak upper trough will cross the UK during the
weekend, but for southern areas all that's likely is a bit of cloud, with
any rain restricted to northern and western parts of the UK. Into next
week the settled and warm conditions look like persisting, indeed it may
turn locally hot in the SE of England.
Analysis and evolution to T+120 via GFS
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn001.png
http://85.214.49.20/pics/avnpanel1.gif
High pressure lies to the west, with NW'lies across the UK. Tomorrow the
high moves over England and Wales, with westerlies or WSW'lies elsewhere.
By Wednesday a trough crosses Northern Ireland and Scotland, leading to
SW'lies there. England and Wales remain under a ridge. A col covers
England and Wales on Thursday, with SW'lies elsewhere.
T+120 synopsis
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn12015.png /
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn1201.png
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rjma1201.gif /
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rukm1201.gif
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Recm1201.gif /
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/nogapse_cartes.php
The jetstream chart shows a marked shortwave pattern over the North
Atlantic, with the UK under a ridge. At the 500hPa level there's an
unseasonably deep upper low near Iceland and a corresponding ridge over
the UK. MetO also shows a ridge over the UK, while ECM keeps the ridge
further west. GEM also has a ridge over the UK, while GEM has a weak
trough instead.
At the surface GFS brings high pressure over most areas, the exceptions
being NW Scotland and Northern Ireland, which lie under southerlies. MetO
has SW'lies for all with a ridge over Biscay and France. ECM shows a ridge
over England and Wales with SW'lies for Scotland and Northern Ireland,
with GEM being a carbon copy of ECM over the UK. NGP has WSW'lies for all,
with the Azores High to the SW.
Evolution to T+168
ECM builds high pressure over England and Wales on day 6, with southerlies
elsehwere. A col covers the UK on day 7.
GFS shows a weak trough over the UK on day 6, with NW'lies. On day 7 the
Azores High ridges across the UK with light winds for all as a result.
Looking further afield
Beyond day 7, the ECM brings a ridge from the west on day 8 and NW'lies
for most. On day 9 the ridge moves over the UK, with SW'lies for Scotland
and light winds elsewhere. Winds become SSW'lies over Scotland and
Northern Ireland on day 10 as high pressure persists over England and
Wales.
Day 8 on GFS shows high pressure atop the UK. The high persists for most
on day 9, but Scotland is affected by SW'lies from a trough. On day 10 the
high builds to the west, with northerlies and NW'lies for the UK.
Ensemble analysis
(http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/da...ia/ensdia.html -
last night's 18z)
The ensembles show a dry and increasingly warm outlook.
----------------------------
HOORAY!
Dave
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