"Keith (Southend)" wrote in message
...
I guess we've all been looking the models to see the track of this
weeks low. Yet upto now there has been no evidence of such a feature
forming on the satellite images. It just shows how far we have come in
forecasting so many days ahead, even if detail may go a stray, it's
certainly one worth watching.


Not directly Keith no, however the first signs are beginning to show. WV
imagery shows upper trough extension is well underway to the south of
Iceland, with the broad upper trough already in place just west of Portugal.

IR Loops also show high speed Jet cirrus heading south in a jet maxima from
SE Greenland which in turn is feeding into the extending upper trough.

Over the next 30hrs, this sharpening upper trough induces mass ascent on its
forward side and develops a surface low over NE Iberia which in turn tracks
north towards N France. PVA rounding the base of the trough and large scale
warm advection will make for huge amounts of ascent on the forward side of
this upper trough and will lead to some locally very heavy rainfall being
produced. GFS has gridpoint values 65mm in 12hrs nr Southampton ending 06Z
Thurs.

The low deepening on Wednesday as it moves under the diffluent left exit of
the nr 100kt jet rounding the base of the upper trough. ..

Hope that helps
Paul