Mike Tullett wrote:

On Wed, 22 Aug 2007 13:06:41 +0100, Mike Tullett wrote in


I found the following hidden away in the NSIDC pages:

"ice extent
the total area covered by some amount of ice, including open water
between ice floes; ice extent is typically reported in square
kilometers."

It seems 15% may be the ice cover percentage, going by this graph at the
NSIDC site.


http://nsidc.org/news/press/2007_sea...timeseries.png


My forecast three months ago of a record low has come good - or bad,
depending how you look at it - and the next challenge is to say when the
Arctic ice will disappear completely during the summer. The most
pessimistic forecast I've seen is that it will happen by 2040. However, my
feeling is that that's still too optimistic. The graph at
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosph...rrent.anom.jpg shows an
accelerating decline. Also, the 40% loss in ice-thickness reported a while
ago was for the period 1965-95. As global temperatures had not started
falling until about 1975, I presume the 40% loss occurred after that year.
40% loss in twenty years and it's been getting warmer since then! Most of
the rough (very!) calculations I've made come up with 2020 as the likely
year when the ice goes. The next challenge is to be sure to live long
enough to see it!

--
Graham P Davis
Bracknell, Berks., UK
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