Weathermen admitted yesterday, 20 years after they failed to forecast
the Great Storm of 1987, that a similarly devastating event could
still arrive undetected. The news comes amid concerns over climate
change, which forecasters expect will lead to more storms hitting
Britain with greater intensity. Forecasting techniques have improved
greatly since October 16, 1987, when hurricane-force winds swept
across southern England. Although computers are much more powerful,
weather patterns better understood and warning systems far more
sophisticated than they were in 1987, weather researchers say that
further improvements are required.

Ewen McCallum, the Met Office's chief meteorologist, said that it was
"highly likely" that the next such storm would be accurately forecast,
but
admitted that it was possible that weathermen could get it wrong
again. "I'd like to think, should a great storm or major depression
occur again, the risk of it happening would be picked up and
communicated to the public," he said. "It's highly likely we would
predict it, but we can't be complacent." Modelling techniques
available in 1987 identified stormy weather approaching two or three
days before the storm hit. In the 24 hours before it struck, however,
the storm seemed likely to come up the Channel and miss Britain.

It was this belief that led Michael Fish to declare to viewers:
"Earlier on
today apparently a woman rang the BBC and said she'd heard there was a
hurricane on the way. Well if you are watching, don't worry, there
isn't."
The storm that followed was the worst in nearly 300 years, killing 18
people and causing about £1 billion in damage but it is increasingly
being regarded as the first of several likely to sweep across Britain.

Having been described at the time as a once-in-200-years weather
event, it was matched less than three years later by the Burns Day
Storm in January 1990. That storm, which hit in the early hours of
January 25, affected a much larger swathe of the country than the
Great Storm. Parts of Wales and southern England recorded even
stronger winds and 47 people were killed.

Mr McCallum said that only "flat-Earthers" refused to believe that the
world was in the grip of climate change and that global warming would
mean more stormy weather. Matt Huddlestone, a climate scientist with
the Met Office, expects storms like that of October 1987 to become
increasingly familiar as global warming intensifies. He said: "Climate
change is unequivocally impacting on our environment. We've already
seen an increase in extreme storms over the UK in the last 50 years.
It's expected that there will be continual changes into the future.
There will be stronger pressure gradients driving more storms in our
direction, with stronger winds."

In the aftermath of the 1987 storm the Met Office set up its National
Severe Weather Warning Service to help to make emergency services and
the public aware of potentially dangerous weather. Analysis of the
factors that contributed to the devastating winds, which were recorded
at up to 122mph, gave meteorologists a better understanding of the
storm. They have run a series of retrospective forecasts and
identified a "sting jet" - a sudden downward surge of air at high
speed in the tail of a storm system - as the main factor in making the
1987 event so deadly. Meteorologists at the Met Office are convinced
that with additional money to purchase a new super-computer they will
be able vastly to improve their success in forecasting weather and
climate changes.

Brian Golding, head of forecasting research, said that the technology,
which would cost hundreds of millions of pounds, would save lives and
pay back the investment ten times over.