On Thu, 11 Oct 2007 17:56:49 -0700, Tudor Hughes
wrote:

I, too, am highly suspicious of this forecast of increased
storminess for the same reasons that you give, while not doubting for
one second that the world has got warmer and will continue to do so.
Historically, the stormiest periods in this country were during cold
epochs such as the Little Ice Age when the north-south temperature
gradient was larger than it is now and the zone of maximum gradient
was further south, i.e. closer to the UK. One can safely ignore the
opinions of newspaper columnists on this matter because they know
nothing about climate, let alone climate change, but when it comes
from meterologists one simply has to take notice. But I wonder to
what extent these fellows were making political statements to try to
persuade us that Global Warming is a Bad Thing because it will affect
*us*. My own guess is that the average inhabitant of these isles
finds the warmer climate rather congenial, and probably wants more of
it and to hell with the allegedly drowning polar bears and shrinking
glaciers. The evidence so far does not support a forecast of
increased storminess.. There was a stormy spell 1986 -1993 after
which it has all gone mostly rather quiet. What is the physics behind
these predictions? What, also, is the real rate of sea-level rise,
and how does it comparewith current predictions?

All good points and I tend towards that viewpoint myself. We are given
far too little information in these press reports or statements and
this tends to increase my suspicions. The following extract makes me
particularly suspicious:

"Meteorologists at the Met Office are convinced
that with additional money to purchase a new super-computer they will
be able vastly to improve their success in forecasting weather and
climate changes.

Brian Golding, head of forecasting research, said that the technology,
which would cost hundreds of millions of pounds, would save lives and
pay back the investment ten times over."

It seems to me that the Met Office may be pitching for funds for a new
supercomputer - and when money enters into a debate, my scepticism
about statements lacking in detail (such as this) increases markedly.

--
Dave