Jonathan Stott wrote:

Graham Easterling wrote:

It's also very easy to pick 1 element that's the same. North Atlantic
Sea temperatures, arctic ice extent, etc etc paint a very different
picture.

Has there been any research into looking at past weather patterns and
perhaps assigning some kind of "similarity" metric to the various
elements of previous data?


Over forty years ago, the Met Office used matches with past years as part of
their monthly forecast. I soon lost confidence in this technique when, for
one forecast in late '63 I think, they used a match with the previous year.
My first reaction was that the UK weather was totally different for
the "similar" months. I checked the MWR's and found one was summarised as
sunny, dry and mild, whereas the other was dull, cool and damp. It didn't
give me much faith in the forecast and I was proved to be right.


--
Graham P Davis, Bracknell, Berks., UK. E-mail: newsman, not newsboy.
"What use is happiness? It can't buy you money." [Chic Murray, 1919-85]