Although as pointed out elsewhere, the lack of rainfall for this
October is not particularly remarkable, taking the last three months
together (August, September & October so far), then the total rainfall
for Hurn (Bournemouth) is 93 mm, representing 43% of the 1971-2000
average.

Looking back at the record made available on the Met Office web site,
since 1957 there have only been two drier such periods: 1972 (81 mm)
and the driest, 1978 (67 mm), which latter included the driest October
at that station in the past 50 years. November 1978 was also very dry:
the driest such-named month in that period.

Looking at the ensemble output (GFES) I suspect we'll catch up a bit;
integrating the output from the 06Z run for our closest grid-point we
should put on roughly another 10 mm, which still means a dry spell
overall. The soil is drying out markedly again (at least on top) with
several days of strong sunshine recently. Over the last week, we've
averaged over 6 hours of 'bright' sunshine (KZS) each day, though the
sunshine total looks like being down on the month overall.

Martin.


--
Martin Rowley
E:
W: booty.org.uk