"Alan White" wrote in message
...
On Tue, 6 Nov 2007 17:39:26 -0000, "David Haggas"
wrote:

The local presenters have email!

Looks like we are in for some cautious changes:


http://www.dailymail.co.uk/pages/liv...article_id=490
805&in_page_id=1770

From the above URL:-
quote
It means phrases such as 'scattered showers' could be ditched and
replaced with the more mathematical '30 per cent chance of rain'.
/quote

'Scattered showers' means a lot more to me than '30 per cent chance of
rain'.


It depends. If the forecast was for your precise location then 30% chance says a
lot more than scattered showers which is an areal measure.

OTOH if 30% referred to 30% of your area (e.g. county) getting showers then that
would mean nothing for your location but says a lot for someone moving around
the area.

The bottom line is that probability forecasts need to be spelt out as to
precisely what they mean. Educated people may be able to understand them, but I
guess that your average Daily Excess reader may struggle :-)

Will
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