On Nov 6, 6:44 pm, "Will Hand" wrote:
"Alan White" wrote in message

...







On Tue, 6 Nov 2007 17:39:26 -0000, "David Haggas"
wrote:

The local presenters have email!

Looks like we are in for some cautious changes:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/pages/liv...s.html?in_arti...
805&in_page_id=1770

From the above URL:-
quote
It means phrases such as 'scattered showers' could be ditched and
replaced with the more mathematical '30 per cent chance of rain'.
/quote

'Scattered showers' means a lot more to me than '30 per cent chance of
rain'.

It depends. If the forecast was for your precise location then 30% chance says a
lot more than scattered showers which is an areal measure.

OTOH if 30% referred to 30% of your area (e.g. county) getting showers then
that would mean nothing for your location but says a lot for someone moving
around the area.

And be just about as useful.

The bottom line is that probability forecasts need to be spelt out to
precisely what they mean.

And if we had Atlantic charts we could fill in the blanks. I hope the
buggers never catch on. I should hate to be beholden to them once
more.