"Will Hand" wrote in message news:...

"Dave Cornwell" wrote in message
. uk...

"Will Hand" wrote in message
...
Looks like being on the back edge of next Sunday's cold front (maybe up to
5cms
above 400m asl). Classic meridional extension at T+120 on DT12Z GFS. Snow
showers to follow down to 200m asl on Sunday night into Monday.

Will.
--



------------------------------------------------------------------------------
-
A COL BH site in East Dartmoor at Haytor, Devon 310m asl (1017 feet).

mailto:
www:
http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/Hayt...antage_Pro.htm

DISCLAIMER - All views and opinions expressed by myself are personal
and do not necessarily represent those of my employer.


------------------------------------------------------------------------------
-

---------------------------
Looks that way with snow showers for me in couple of days following that.
It's a bit of a long way off though I would have thought, to have much
confidence , especially with the charts changing quite a bit with each run.
In the words of Darren ..................

Dave

But there is a consensus developing. UKMO shows the same upper air evolution.
If
ECMWF comes aboard again then at T+120 confidence must be growing. Also
consistent with last week's jet stream pattern which I discussed and said was
not favourable for a return to zonality. Obviously the detail changes but the
broadscale signal is now much clearer.

Will
--


STOP PRESS

12Z ECMWF has come on board with the same evolution. That is now 3 separate
models all identical in terms of a cold plunge. In fact ECMWF goes a step
further with full subsequent anticyclonic disruption leaving a cut-off low over
southern Britain on Monday with cold air entrained raising the possibility of
more widespread sleet and snow on low ground.

OK the detail *will* change in later runs and I expect the cold may become less
intense than currently predicted making it a hill snow event, but fascinating
nevertheless for so early in the cold season.

Will
--