"Will Hand" wrote in message
...

STOP PRESS

12Z ECMWF has come on board with the same evolution. That is now 3
separate
models all identical in terms of a cold plunge. In fact ECMWF goes a step
further with full subsequent anticyclonic disruption leaving a cut-off low
over
southern Britain on Monday with cold air entrained raising the possibility
of
more widespread sleet and snow on low ground.

OK the detail *will* change in later runs and I expect the cold may become
less
intense than currently predicted making it a hill snow event, but
fascinating
nevertheless for so early in the cold season.

Will

I don't think the 12Z EC operational run was as cold as the 12Z GFS though
on Sunday/Monday but in saying that there was some support, albeit a tad
limited, in the 12Z ensemble for the colder scenario. Interestingly the 18Z
GFS looks very similar to the midday solution. Early days but if it comes
off it could also get a bit dodgy across the Midlands and the higher ground
north of London, e.g. Luton.

Jon.