On Wed, 14 Nov 2007 10:13:50 GMT, "Martin Rowley"
wrote:
the risk of such conditions were indicated nearly 12
months ago. The period of maximum activity was very well forecast,
from the 8th to the 13th: if this was a 'fluke', I'd would like some
of this luck!

Interesting... however, I can't help wondering if a similar "success"
could have been obtained by studying the climatology, given that his
forecasts cover 5 to 6 day periods and he has forecast three stormy
periods within about a month.

In the period from October 26 to November 28 inclusive (34 days), his
"stormy" forecasts encompassed 16 days - almost 50%. I suspect that
many of us could hit the target at least once if we did what he did
and issued a similar type of forecast (surprise surprise he forecast
the highest winds in Scotland). I remain highly sceptical.

--
Dave