"JCW" wrote in message
...


if you have a gander at the ECMWF at T+240 you'll get the picture. Not
quite
the 'perfect' setup that GFS had at T+384 last night. Pity I didn't save
that one!

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmw...0&mode=1&map=0

Joe

Useful page, Joe. Notice the higher resolution GFS (0.5°) and WRF models are
indicating snow over parts over northern France and the higher ground over
the UK but even these models will struggle with this situation where a
change of precipitation type at the surface could well depend on a change of
1 degree (or less) in the boundary layer. Either way I strongly suspect
they're underplaying the snow risk over France.

1700Z issue Long TAFs for the various Paris airports have light sleet/snow
tomorrow evening. Closer to home there's a risk of snow at Leeds and sleet
at some of the elevated sites further south.

Paris Charles de Gaulle TAF LFPG 171700Z 180024 14006KT CAVOK PROB30 TEMPO
0307 5000
BECMG 1012 14015G30KT BKN040 BKN090 BECMG 1618 4000 -SN BKN015 OVC020
BECMG 2123 16012KT 8000 -RASN SCT015 BKN030

Luton EGGW 171642Z 180024 17017G28KT 9999 SCT010 BKN020 BECMG 1114
6000 -RA BKN007 TEMPO 1324 4000 RA BKN003 BECMG 1215 11018G28KT
PROB30 TEMPO 1522 2000 RASN=


Leeds EGNM 171636Z 180024 18020G30KT 7000 -RA BKN012 TEMPO 0009 4000
RA BECMG 0811 14012KT BKN008 TEMPO 0924 11015G25KT 3000 -RASN
BKN004 PROB30 TEMPO 1724 1200 SN BKN001=

A tricky 24-48 hours coming up.


Jon.