Well I reckon it now looks like the beginning of Dec will be dominated by a
rather cold zonal flow with the main strength being between 50N and 60N.
Temperatures near average and any sig. snow restricted to high ground above 250m
asl. Some milder interludes and possibly quite windy at times (which is normal
for time of year). Colder northwesterly interludes may give temporary cold
conditions with frost at night. 80% confident.
Will
--
"Will Hand" wrote in message
...
I reckon the atmosphere will make up its mind next week for the first half of
December.
Will it be raging zonality and mild or more blocked and colder?
Looking at all the runs DT00Z it seems to hang on a development of a small and
intense low in mid-Atlantic at T+108 and how that subsequently behaves. GEM is
one extreme developing a deep tight circulation which in the next 3 days
meanders across UK reinforcing the high to the north which then puts us is in
some sort of easterly. EC and UKMO don't develop much of a tight circulation
and
move the low north. This leaves the door open for a strong jet to propagate
east
out of Canada introducing the zonal setup for early Dec. Interestingly EC has
a
cold zonal flow at first with possible widespread frontal snow in northern
Britain, but it soon turns much milder. UKMO zonal is less strong but still
extends across UK. GFS is on its own and a halfway house between GEM and EC
with
a subsequent attempt at a northern block (consistent with some of its earlier
runs). So there we are. On that analysis alone the odds are as follows for
early
Dec.
1. Zonal and mild (poss cold zonal at first) 50%
2. Cold and blocked very cold easterly 20%
3. Uncertain, possibly no-mans land, neither fully blocked nor fully zonal 30%
Of course non of the above takes into account solar factors :-)
Will
--
" I shall not commit the fashionable stupidity of regarding everything
I cannot explain as fraud. Carl Jung "
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A COL BH site in East Dartmoor at Haytor, Devon 310m asl (1017 feet).
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