Now there are three. None of them especially powerful but obviously
they are in concert, able to change the spell from cold, clear and
frosty to warm, thick gloom
abpw10 pgtw 262300
msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen pearl harbor hi/jtwc//
subj/significant tropical weather advisory for the western and
/south pacific oceans reissued/262300z-270600znov2007//
ref/a/msg/navpacmetoccen pearl harbor hi/261951znov2007//
ref/b/msg/navpacmetoccen pearl harbor hi/261952znov2007//
ref/c/msg/navpacmetoccen pearl harbor hi/261953znov2007//
narr/refs a, b and c are tropical cyclone warnings.//
rmks/
1. western north pacific area (180 to malay peninsula):
a. tropical cyclone summary:
(1) at 261800z, tropical depression 23w (hagibis) was located
near 11.8n 118.0e, approximately 240 nm southwest of manila
philippines, and had tracked eastward at 12 knots over the past six
hours. maximum sustained surface winds were estimated at 25 knots
gusting to 35 knots. see ref a (wtpn31 pgtw 262100) for further
details.
(2) at 261800z, tropical storm 24w (mitag) was located near
21.1n 121.0e, approximately 95 nm south-southeast of kaohsiung
taiwan, and had tracked north-northeastward at 09 knots over the
past six hours. maximum sustained surface winds were estimated at 55
knots gusting to 70 knots. see ref b (wtpn32 pgtw 262100) for
further details.
(3) at 261800z, tropical depression 25w was located near 17.0n
130.5e, approximately 575 nm south-southeast of naha okinawa, and
had tracked northwestward at 13 knots over the past six hours.
maximum sustained surface winds were estimated at 25 knots gusting
to 35 knots. see ref c (wtpn33 pgtw 262100) for further details.
(4) no other tropical cyclones.
b. tropical disturbance summary:
(1) the area of convection previously located near 7.5n
142.5e, is now located near 10.1n 139.1e, approximately 70 nm east-
northeast of yap island. animated infrared satellite imagery depicts
poorly-organized deep convection. a 261907z amsu image depicted
developing (but weak) convective banding over the western semi-
circle supporting the current position of the low-level circulation
center (llcc). surface observations from yap (914130) indicate
sustained northwesterly winds at 12-15 knots and slp near 1003.5 mb
with noteworthy 24-hour pressure falls of about 5 mb. overall, the
environment is favorable with a developing anticyclone north of the
center and weak to moderate vertical wind shear. maximum sustained
surface winds are estimated at 15 to 20 knots. minimum sea level
pressure is estimated to be near 1003 mb. the potential for the
development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24
hours remains fair.
(2) no other suspect areas.
2. south pacific area (west coast of south america to 135 east):
a. tropical cyclone summary: none.
b. tropical disturbance summary: none.
3. justification for reissue: upgraded area in para 1.a.(3) to
warning status and updated fair area in para 1.b.(1).
forecast team: bravo//
http://205.85.40.22/jtwc/ab/abpwweb.txt
If the alternative is serious quakes again, then the global weather
models will start to fall apart. No matter how your mileage varies,
this will show up at a weather centre near you.