"Succorso" wrote in message ...
Just out of interest Darren, if you dig into your archives and look at
the summaries for the last week of July last year, what were they saying?
August 2003 was a memorable one - little or no rain, and much heat; here
we are one year on, and I'm just wondering how successfully the models
were picking up the impending settled spell?
They picked up on it in the closing days of July; from what I remember the
ensembles had been picking up on it even earlier, but I don't have copies of
the charts from back then.

Well, there is one: from the 28th July 2003, the ensembles looked like this:

http://www.medvale.fsnet.co.uk/ens.gif

For reference, the summaries for the end of July were as follows:

20th July:
In summary, the runs continue to show an unsettled end to the week for many,
although as usual areas furthest to the south and east will probably remain
more settled. As ever, more runs are needed.

21st July:
In summary, most of the runs show low pressure to the NW for the end of the
week. However, the effects vary widely between runs,
with outcomes ranging from gentle westerlies (MetO) to SSW'lies (GFS) to
stronger westerlies and SE'lies (GEM). As ever, more runs are needed.

22nd July:
In summary, the majority of the runs show a low to the NW for the weekend,
with the Canadian, ECM and GFS runs showing a secondary low to the SW or
WSW. However, the runs differ with regards to the track and intensity of the
secondary low, so as ever more runs are needed.

23rd July:
In summary, the runs show westerlies or SW'lies for Sunday, with low
pressure or a trough bringing the least settled conditions to Scotland and
Northern Ireland. By Tuesday into Wednesday, the models diverge more, with
the Canadian showing westerlies and the GFS/ECM showing northerlies and
NW'lies respectively. As ever, more runs are needed.

24th July:
In summary, the runs show an unsettled period midweek, with low pressure
passing over or close to the UK. As is usual in these situations, SE England
in particular will see less in the way of unsettled conditions, on account
of being nearer the European High. There are still some considerable
differences between the models, so as ever more runs are needed.

25th July:
In summary, the runs continue to show relatively unsettled weather as next
weekend approaches. There are some considerable differences with regards to
the track and intensity of lows, though, so as ever more runs are needed

26th July:
In summary, the runs are mixed today, although all show ridging over Biscay
which would bring slight more settled conditions to southern England. As to
where the lows will be, detail varies a fair bit, from over the UK (ECM), to
the north (GFS), to the west (Canadian). As ever, more runs are needed.

27th July:
In summary, the runs today generally show low pressure to the NW of the UK,
with the least settled conditions for northern areas of the UK. For the
weekend, the GFS and ECM runs show increasingly settled conditions moving up
from the south, while the Canadian run delays the settled conditions by a
day or two.

29th July:
The runs today all show the same basic setup, that of low pressure near
Iceland and high pressure to the SW. The models vary with regards to the
high, though, with solutions ranging from moderate westerlies for all (ECM)
to light westerlies for most (MetO). The Canadian and GFS runs also show
lighter winds over England and Wales in particular. For the beginning of
next week, the runs show high pressure moving eastwards across the UK (ECM)
and over the North Sea (GFS, GEM), with light winds for most.

30th July:
In summary, the runs today suggest that a prolonged warm (if not hot) and
settled spell is on the way, with high pressure over the UK (GFS) or to the
east/NE (Canadian) for the best part of a week. If the high does settle to
the east or NE, though, Scotland and Northern Ireland are likely to see more
in the way of cloud. The ECM and MetO runs also keep high pressure
dominating the UK from T+120 out to T+144/T+168, so there's good agreement
today.

31st July:
In summary, the runs today continue to show a prolonged settled spell for
much of the UK.