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Old November 30th 07, 05:25 PM posted to uk.sci.weather
Martin Brown Martin Brown is offline
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First recorded activity by Weather-Banter: Nov 2003
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Default WeatherAction forecast issued 16OCT2007: overall review [Long] -more comment

On Nov 30, 4:40 pm, Malcolm wrote:
In article
,
Weatherlawyer writesOn Nov 29, 11:39 pm, Weatherlawyer wrote:

8. I am full of ****, so you either walk away from this or look at it
impartially. The alternative is for me to react rather badly all over
you if I get any wrong impressions.


9. Another synergy occurs when tow or more similar lunar phases run
together.


Eh?

We've only one moon which has four phases which follow each other in an
ordered fashion. How can two of them "run together"?


He is a barking mad net kook - no rational conversation is possible.
He doesn't understand tides.

11. On several occasions a run of lunar phases at similar times have
been followed by one or two different ones in a sequence that
repeated.


I'm beginning to think that you are using the phrase "lunar phase" to
mean something other than full, last quarter, new, first quarter. If you
are, perhaps you could enlighten us.


I suspect he is hopelessly confused by the moons elliptical orbit and
the fact that as the Earth goes around the sun it is possible to get
full moons of various sizes +/-5% depending on whether the moon is
near apogee or perigee.

http://www.fourmilab.ch/earthview/moon_ap_per.html

The lunar tidal effects are strongest when it is at its closest
(perigee), but AFAIK noone has ever managed to demonstrate any
meaningful statistical correlation between either lunar distance or
visible illuminated phase and frequency of earthquakes. Many have
tried and failed. The Japanese are understandably very keen on
earthquake prediction.

Fourmilab have a nice online lunar calculator that can show you the
range and also phase.

http://www.fourmilab.ch/earthview/pacalc.html

In the very weakest sense you can get minor weather induced
earthquakes when persistent rain waterlogs weak clay soils in steep
valleys causing it to suddenly fluidise and fall under gravity. It is
just about conceivable that water ingress into rock faults or weak
strata during extensive flooding or monsoon rains might help lubricate
a slip releasing stored energy.

Regards,
Martin Brown