On Dec 11, 8:27 am, Weatherlawyer wrote:

So do I turn the heating on again? Looks like it is going to be sunny.
Maybe I'll switch it on tonight, best to be safe.

On the other hand, I don't want to be stuck here sweltering with the
windows open, heating the clouds.

Decisions, decisions!

subtropical storm olga public advisoryhome public adv fcst/adv
discussion wind probs maps/charts archive
torm olga advisory number 3
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl al172007
1100 am ast tue dec 11 2007

Warning extended westward along the north coast of Hispaniola... at 11
am ast...1500 utc...a tropical storm warning has been issued for the
north coast of Haiti from the border with the Dominican Republic
westward to the north-western tip of Haiti.

Olga is moving just south of due west near 15 mph, 24 km/hr and
expected to continue for the next 24 hours as forecast.

The centre is expected to pass very close to the southern coast of the
DR later today. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph...75 km/hr.
Little change in strength is expected today but some weakening is
likely tomorrow with strong upper-level winds.

[So what is the reason for not issuing wind speeds in knots I wonder?
Knots make it so easy to relate to spherical geometry.]

Olga's strongest winds are located well away from the center of
circulation, which is a characteristic of subtropical cyclones.

It is expected to produce additional rain accumulations of 2 to 4
inches over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, with isolated maximum
storm total amounts of 12 inches. Amounts of 4 to 6 inches are
possible over Hispaniola with possible isolated maximum totals of 10
inches.

THESE RAINS HAVE ALREADY PRODUCED LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUD-SLIDES IN PUERTO RICO.

Forecaster Franklin/Brown

http://www.noaa.gov/

A modicum of sobriety in respect for those in danger. Meanwhile is it
worth pointing out, I wonder, that the time of the phase when close to
6 o'clock tends to produce tropical storms in the North Atlantic.

Just as when the time of the phase tends to produce severe storms (as
opposed to the usual suspects) when that time of phase is near 7
o'clock.

Since the latitude of the storm is most likely dependent on the
declination of the moon and sun rather than the time of the phases,
that one hour difference is interesting.

(BTW, I put the heating on earlier today.)