" cupra" wrote in message
...
From SFeric data and rainfall radar, it looks like a the Midlands will be in
for a downpour, never mind the southeast problems that were mentioned on
national forecasts (25.2degC here in Northampton)

There are two different processes responsible for triggering convection
today. The first, as has now occurred, is from the upper trough to the W
destabilising the warm plume lying over most of central UK. The second from
imported storms from France, which may form an MCS later this evening.
Supercells are mentioned in the Estofex outlooks, but 11Z ascents show
profiles not ideal for such storms. We'll see. The SE will be affected a lot
later on, more likely late evening.

Joe