Plainly even medium range forecasting is effectively useless.

The MetO winter forcast may well be quite accurate in that it call for
precisely the same type of winter as has become the normal. So unless the
weather does something very unusual they will pat themselves on the back and
claim they know what they are doing.

I would suggest that there are many members of this forum who could and
already have forecast another bland winter.

So if an enthusiast using no more than a wet finger out the bed room window
and no small measure of intuition can equal the MetO forecast, why do we
bother with the MetO long range guesscast?

Paulus