All models (including GFS ensembles) apart from GFS main develop a Scandinavian
high over the New Year. A deep low coming out of Newfoundland in T+48 to T+72
range has been consistent from 5 days ago and is now expected to deepen more
than in earlier runs. This is in area of anomously very warm Atlantic water and
will throw up a lot of tropical low PV air northwards, helping to intensify a
ridge over the UK this weekend and later build a cold Scandi high linking in to
a high further east. Unlike our last high pressure this would be a genuine
easterly, not too cold at first but turning significantly colder as 492DAM air
advects south from the pole. Details unclear obviously but a potential colder
spell than last time is on the cards at the beginning of 2008. With the high
further north the potential for snow is higher too.

Confidence in build of high pressure over UK 90%
Confidence in the subsequent cold easterly 60%.

Will.
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A COL BH site in East Dartmoor at Haytor, Devon 310m asl (1017 feet).

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