In message , Joe Hunt
writes

"Waghorn" wrote in message
...
I think a lot of it might be down to "luck" Jack.
..........
hit-and-miss nature of this type of weather.

--
Chris

Actually in this case a good forecast may not have been down to luck.As
outlined by Joe and in the
Estofex alert all the ingredients for forecasting the location and
severity of the storms seem to
have become available during the day.
I think credit should be given for the advances in 'nowcasting' storm
development in fields of
observing systems,modelling and conceptual understanding.

Hi David,

I think something that should be brought to people's attention is the issue
of Flash warnings that are a prime example of the nowcasting techniques the
MetO adopt at such times. These were issued readily yesterday for all the
regions concerned.

It's a pity that there's no automatic e-mail distribution list for these
warnings like there is for similar warnings in the USA. I raised this
recently with UKMO but the response was that it would cost too much
money.

However accurate and timely the Flash warnings may be they have value
only if they very promptly get into the hands of individuals who can
make decisions based on them. Posting the warnings on a web page is not
an efficient means of distribution as it relies on potential users
checking to see whether or not any warnings have been issued. An e-mail
distribution list is a much more reliable means of communication.

Norman.
(delete "thisbit" twice to e-mail)
--
Norman Lynagh Weather Consultancy
Chalfont St Giles
England