wrote in message
...
On 1 Jan, 21:53, "Will Hand" wrote:
"Will Hand" wrote in message news:...

wrote in message
...
On 1 Jan, 21:20, "Will Hand" wrote:
wrote in message


...

On 1 Jan, 19:15, "Will Hand" wrote:
12Z runs, particularly ECMWF, have jet more veered and the
difference
in
evolution is quite dramatic. Lows further south and pushing closer
in
to
UK
again. We may have to wait till end of tomorrow before evolution
for
weekend
and
beyond becomes clearer. Main emphasis for snow is still in
northern
Britain.

Will
--

For someone who was my college lecturer, at one stage, you are
displaying an extreme "sit on the fence" opinion, which would have
been ridiculed had your 'pupils' done the same on that course.

That's science for you.

I might prefer the 200mb low, which is appearently too high for
winter
jet stream analysis, but 25 years worth of study has served me very
well.

200 mb is in the stratosphere in polar latitudes as you well know (or
at
least
ought to!).

Not always, as you well know (or should do).

I challenge you to give me an example of where the 200mb and 300mb
streamlines differ at a statisically siginficant level on the current
forecast charts, especially over western Europe.

12Z GFS T+132 over Greenland.

Will

Also of more significance to UK, along 50N same time in Atlantic. Flow is
more
veered and "wiggly" at 300hpa, small differences can make all the difference
to
subsequent weather evolution.

Yes, they can if they are analyitical, but this is a computer forecast
and should be treated as such.


But it illustrates the difference quite nicely between 200mb and 300mb in
winter, 200 mb level is too bland as it is above the jet stream.

It is not reality.

This has been my point from the beginning.

Some people want certain things to happen, so they seize on any model
product that fits their bias.

In my experience that has never been, and never will be, forecasting.

Right my last post now in this thread (and elsewhere) as I shall not have
computer access for a few days.

Please tell us John, based on your experience, what will happen next week?

Will
--