Below is on the Met Office site today: - but wasn't last January's warmth
blamed on El Nino? So either way, we will get mild and wet Januarys?


Is La Niña to blame for the poor weather and the flooding? Climate expert Dr
Adam Scaife explains.

Although not completely responsible there are links between La Niña and
mild, wet and windy weather in our region in late winter.

La Niña is a marine phenomenon which cools the equatorial seas of the
Pacific, especially towards South America. As La Niña takes hold the main
focus for warm rising air shifts to the west Pacific, which has an impact on
the atmosphere. This impact travels out of the tropics and interacts with
the jet stream - a ribbon of very strong winds in the upper atmosphere which
largely determines where the weather systems that bring rain to the UK will
develop and move across western Europe.

This year's La Niña is likely to turn out to be the strongest since 1988-89,
about 1.5 °C (2.7 °F) cooler than normal, thus having an increased affect on
the jet stream. The strengthened jet stream helped to develop more powerful
wet and windy depressions, which it then steered across the Atlantic. This
week the jet stream has brought those depressions across the south-west of
England - in almost exactly the same areas as in the summer.

La Niña, and its opposite El Niño, are two of the elements taken into
consideration in our seasonal forecast and conditions so far this winter
have been consistent with the outcome we predicted as most likely.