"Dave Cornwell" wrote in message
o.uk...

"
It looks as though the 00Z ECMWF has backed away from a cold plunge.
--
...... and 06Z GFS to an extent. More runs not needed ;-(

Dave

The ensemble data from both EC and the GFS still support the cooling
trend/plunge of sorts around the beginning of February. Might get a frost if
I'm, err, lucky.

In the short period the long TAFs are now showing the risk of particularly
strong gusts due to lee wave activity tomorrow as mentioned by several
already, e.g Newcastle with gusts of around 45KT/52MPH expected and a 40%
PROB of 60KT/69MPH gusts

EGNT 241005Z 241818 26015G25KT CAVOK BECMG 0306 23020G30KT
BKN040 BECMG 0912 25025G45KT PROB40 TEMPO 1018 27040G60KT=


Currently a very pleasant PS09 in glorious sunshine.

Jon (tropical east Devon)