00Z 26th.
What a change. OP runs seems to have backed off very cold scenario considerably.
But still cold.
Ensembles solid for retrogression. Fascinating!
Confidence in a cold snap now 90%
Confidence in a widespread low-ground snow event now 30%
Will
--
"Will Hand" wrote in message
...
12Z ECMWF is same story as 00Z!
In fact sub 510 DAM air into western Scotland on Friday and widespread sleet
or
snow on Thursday with sub 522 DAM. Origin of the air is the pole itself and
that
is mighty cold, even these days. As we are talking T+144 now from one of the
best models in the world confidence is now 70%. JMA and UKMO all go a very
cold
wintry spell with widespread snow. Only GFS is now milder.
I'm getting a tad excited :-)
Will
--
"Will Hand" wrote in message
...
Well as of 25/01/08 all models are going solidly for major long wave
retrogression (high centred western/mid Atlantic) and very cold air plunging
down from north later next week and lasting into next weekend at least.
Still some oscillation in detail and ECMWF 00Z run is frightening with
1000-500
thickness down to 516DAM over Wales. Possibly an outlier. GFS is the least
keen
on deep cold air which is unusual, so perhaps that is an outlier too as its
ensembles look cold. UKMO is in line but not as cold as the ECMWF
(outlier?).
GEM is also less cold, throwing some more doubt on severity.
So some sleet and snow for a lot of people on low ground I'd say at end of
next
week, particularly in west and north with still some west in the flow. My
personal confidence is now 65%, so still an amount of doubt obviously.
Nevertheless, I have primed the Haytor community for the probability of snow
above 250m asl from next Thursday onwards and I can hear the sound of
sledges
being honed as I type, me ... I'm gonna check that log pile in the lovely
dry
and sunny weather we have now :-)
Will
--
" I shall not commit the fashionable stupidity of regarding everything
I cannot explain as fraud. Carl Jung "
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A COL BH site in East Dartmoor at Haytor, Devon 310m asl (1017 feet).
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