It seems that mild weather predictions are straightforward and always come
off whereas cold snaps are fraught with difficulty and rarely come off. But
I wonder if this is a mis-perception due to where the norm lies. In other
words to get what would be considered (by me anyway) to be cold and the
possibility of snow the temperature would roughly and likely be in the 0-3C
max range. Weather likely not to cause this would have temperatures in the
range 4-13C at this time of year. So small changes in synoptics will take us
out of the cold scenario whereas small or even large synoptic changes in the
same time scale will still lead to temperatures in the "mild" range,
possibly similar weather, and largely go unnoticed or not commented on.
Obvious to most on here but something to bear in mind when there is feeling
of things "being against us" syndrome for cold weather fans. ;-(
Dave