It seems to me that whereas a few years back these setups would be a
'dead cert' now it's touch and go right up to the wire.

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What does seem odd is that, especially with the GFS model, always , almost
without exception, it downgrades the degree of cold between T+144 and T+0.
I've yet to see a colder or the same outcome than the one first predicted
even at the high resolution. It is in fact such a regular occurence that
cold weather enthusiasts program that into their expectations. Begs the
question why the model isn't adapted to get it right .

Dave