The question mark is not because I am agonising over whether my July 2004
rainfall of 38.9mm differs significantly from my (estimated) 1971-2000 average
of 40mm. However, using that benchmark alone, you could say we have had the
second consecutive drier than average July.

The reason for this posting is to alert us to the unrepresentative nature of
the 1971-2000 period over most of England and Wales.

Let me illustrate this with the Kew rainfall series, compiled directly from Kew
Ob. for 1840s to 1980, and from a selection of other nearby rainfall sites
(carefully adjusted and highly regarded) for 1697 to 1840s and after 1980.

Using this series as a base, 50 year averages of July rainfall are as follows:

1991-04 40.6mm
1971-00 41.3

but this is a misleading 'benchmark' ? We then have.....

1951-00 48.3
1901-50 59.9
1851-1900 60.5
1801-50 65.0
1751-1800 63.2
1701-50 55.9

There are no short downwards blips prior to 1970 comparable to what we have
experienced since then (I'll resist the temptation to post decadal means!).
[Data from 1981 are derived from Kew Gardens adjusted values and post 2001 from
my own data (my average matches Kew Ob.). You get the same results by adjusting
other local sites].

Julian

Julian Mayes, Molesey, Surrey - where the grass verges are now getting 'browned
off' again.