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Old March 12th 08, 08:57 AM posted to uk.sci.weather
Graham Easterling[_2_] Graham Easterling[_2_] is offline
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First recorded activity by Weather-Banter: Jul 2007
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Default 91 mph gust forecast for Blackpool tonight 11/03/08



Uses boundary layer dynamics straight from the high resolution model and a
few "tuning" factors to allow for local detail.

Will
--


They actually use 'tuning facors'!, blimey they must be c**p. The MetO
told me it was 'raw data' when I pointed out that Padstow east facing
up the Camel estuary, typically has the same max gust forecasts as the
exposed NW facing cliff top location of Newquay (1 mph different at
09:00 today) when they are simply worlds apart. The forecasts for
Penzance seem to take no account of it's exposure to the SE, and as a
result the predictions are normally a gross underestimate during a SE,
and a considereable overestimate on a SW. Perhaps the MetO could
employ humans with a local knowledge? (Sorry - silly suggestion)

It's not unusual to see the same vistually the same forecast speeds
for every coastal location in Cornwall irrespective of aspect.

Graham
Penzance - Where fortunately the gusts were just 40-45mph overnight,
compared with the 70mph+ on Monday. Still a big 20'+ swell
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=62107