"Dave Cornwell" wrote in message
.uk...

I noticed yesterday that the GFS ensembles were incredibly split from
about April 7th , 50% going for +10C 850hPa and the other 50% for
about -10C 850 hPa with not much in between!
It looks like they've gone back to the "cold" outlook, as they were the
other day:

http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

It never ceases to amaze me how the models can pick up on a trend (cold),
wobble around all over the place (yesterday, one GEFS run even had 80% mild
and 20% cold) and then go back to where they started (cold again).

It'd drive anyone to distraction if they took those ensembles too seriously!