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This forecast summary is my *PERSONAL OPINION* of how the weather may unfold
next week. I will take no responsibility whatsoever for any actions arising from
its use. It is provided freely in the spirit of freedom and the great love for
meteorology that I personally enjoy and wish to share freely with others.

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Summary valid for Sunday 08/08/04 to Saturday 14/08/04
TOI (time of issue) Thursday 05/08/04 2030 UK local time This summary is based
on a quick appraisal of the GFS, JMA, ECMWF, UKMO, FAX, and ENS (NCEP ensemble)
labelled charts available from the superb http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten

Due to the rather unpredictable behaviour of ex-tropical storm Alex as it heads
towards the UK all comments below on next week's weather prospects are issued
with low confidence.

The general consensus at time of issue appears to be that a deep low will end up
to the west of Ireland by Monday. This low will then slowly fill, but become
complex over a large part of England and Wales. High pressure looks like being
maintained to the NE of the British Isles.

On Sunday and Monday many parts of England could again become hot or even very
hot with a 50% chance of temperatures getting into the low 30s celsius in SE
England. Rain and thunderstorms will move erratically eastwards across southern
and western areas at the same time.

Given the copious amount of water in an ex-tropical strom and very high
temperatures there is a 25% chance of some extremely violent thunderstorms. More
violent than this week even. Also SW parts are under threat too this time.
Rainfall could locally be very heavy with the possibility of disruption,
flooding and even mudslides causing severe danger. Even though that is rated at
25% it is highly likely in any case that southern and western parts will see
spells of quite heavy thundery rain.

With the SE wind North Sea coast regions of Scotland and northeast England could
end up dull and foggy but mainly dry, also Shetland. NW Scotland is likely to
see the brightest of the weather.

The second part of the week is likely to remain, very warm and muggy in all
areas with the possibility of more spells of rain and thunder, especially over
England and Wales. Meanwhile high pressure is likely to build from the north
meaning that Scotland could end up mainly dry and bright with spells of
sunshine, but still rather cloudy and misty near the east coast.

So to summarise, N. Ireland, England and Wales turning wet and stormy and
staying very warm or even hot and muggy. Drier and brighter over Scotland but
mist and fog near eastern coasts. LOW CONFIDENCE though.

As always this and previous forecasts are available at
http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/weeklydiscussions.htm

This forecast was brought to you from the now world famous meteorological office
at Haytor on Dartmoor where old fashioned values of service are alive and
thriving in the beautiful Devon countryside.

Investor in Martians
ISO 9999.3333 recurring
BSc and a lucky git

Will (Chief Forecaster)
--

" BANG !!! Come out from under that table David Womble "
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A COL BH site in East Dartmoor at Haytor, Devon 310m asl (1017 feet).

mailto:
www: http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk

DISCLAIMER - All views and opinions expressed by myself are personal
and do not necessarily represent those of my employer.
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