On Mar 31, 6:09*pm, "Will Hand" wrote:
"Norman" wrote in message

...





Keith (Southend) wrote:

Something I mentioned to my Wife who was getting fed up with the cool
and wet weather of this spring was that it's a good sign for a better
summer. I then just stumbled across this from Philip Eden quoting
similar years which include 1975, 1976 and 1987 which I think were
probably some of the warmest summer months this century in the UK

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-a...LANG=en&MENU=E
xtra&JJ=2008&MM=03&TT=28&FILE=extra_ne.tit

Only last year April gave so many people a sence of a long hot summer
and then it all went terribly wrong. Looking at the trends in the
models April looks like being plagued with easterlies with most of
the rain in the south. A long way to go yet, but anyone wanting some
real summery weather will have to wait till May.

Just my personal thoughts.

Of course, it all depends on how you define "summery" :-)

19C and 60% RH is "summery" for Haytor.

Will
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Hi all,

You are not kidding about 19C and 60% humidity being "summery" for
Haytor, Will! Good grief, I've been up there in some awful weather in
all months! As far as my own views stand about the coming summer; we
have no idea what the summer will be like at this stage, apart from
looking at hindsight statistrics over the last 20/25 years since the
UK began to respond to GW. There isn't a forecaster, or forecasting
agency that can predict with accuracy a combination of warmer/cooler
than average temps and wetter/drier than average precipitation amounts
for the UK. Precipitation is absolutely impossible. Temperature, on
the other hand......

I'd only offer odds of 2/9 that this summer's CET will prove warmer
than average. I'd put the actual odds at closer to 2/7, but being a
natural bookie, rather than a gambler, the offer is only 1/5.

I'd offer 7/2 that the summer will be cooler than average. Again, I'd
put the actual odds, in this warming trend, as a little higher than
that, but the bookie in me wins again. My odds have shifted a little
from last year. A one year cooler-than-average trend (can you have a
one-year trend??) has just made me slightly wary, but it's only a
slight change on the 4/1 I was offering last year. (don't worry, it's
not burned fingers, the last 20+ years have left me well in pocket -
I'm owed a virtual brewery still from the winter before last!)

I despair about long-term forecasting and the "advances" made over the
last 30 years since my interest developed to actual recording.
Presently, long-term forecasting is not capable of predicting the
actual summer weather. Any hunches, feelings, hopes, based on anything
else, except temperatures and hindsight examination of what's been
happening to the summer CET over the last quarter of a century, is
exactly that.....hunches, feelings and hopes. same for the forecasts
for next winter.

A bit depressing, in forecasting terms, isn't it?

Paul

PS Hi to anyone that knows me!