Alastair wrote:

On Apr 1, 9:46 am, Alan Gardiner wrote:
On Sun, 30 Mar 2008 21:13:45 +0100, Keith (Southend) wrote:
Something I mentioned to my Wife who was getting fed up with the cool
and wet weather of this spring was that it's a good sign for a better
summer. I then just stumbled across this from Philip Eden quoting
similar years which include 1975, 1976 and 1987 which I think were
probably some of the warmest summer months this century in the UK

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-a...&LANG=en&MENU=...

Only last year April gave so many people a sence of a long hot summer
and then it all went terribly wrong. Looking at the trends in the
models April looks like being plagued with easterlies with most of the
rain in the south. A long way to go yet, but anyone wanting some real
summery weather will have to wait till May.

Just my personal thoughts.

My daughter is convinced it will be a fine summer as she will be back in
the office after returning from maternity leave. The office is unbearably
hot in warm weather which she finds particularly unpleasant.

Alan

Whereas weather tends to be persistent with a high probability of
tomorrow's weather being similar to today's, and a good season
following a good season, on a annual basis this appears to me to be
the converse of the truth. Inspecting the CET record, it seems that
if last year's temperature was higher than the previous year then this
year's temperature will be lower than last year, and vice versa. Thus
since 2007 was cooler than 2006, then 2008 should be warmer than
2007.

This reversing trend seems to be even more true where one is
considering months.All the months June, July, August and September
were cooler in 2007 than in 2006, therefore I am predicting that they
will be warmer than 2007 this year. There'll be a hot summer in
central England this year!

Where do place my bet, Paul?


I used similar arguments at the end of the '75 summer to confidently predict
that '76 would be a cold, wet summer!


--
Graham P Davis, Bracknell, Berks., UK. E-mail: newsman, not newsboy.
"What use is happiness? It can't buy you money." [Chic Murray, 1919-85]