On 4 Apr, 13:42, Roger Brugge wrote:
Graham Easterling wrote:
I've just looked atwww.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/sw/penzance_forecast_weather.html

The forecast currently shows for Penzance:-
13:00 9C
16:00 9C
Now, I if there was persistent sea fog all day the AND the breeze was
onshore temperature could be held down to 10-11C (the sea
temperature). Any brief breaks would soon push it to 12 or 13.

BUT the wind is NNW - offshore, so low cloud at times certainly but no
sea fog. In fact the cloud's already breaking as it descends into the
Bay

I think this forecast is down to:-
1. *Totally ignoring aspect (I've mentioned this before)
2. *Total lack of data from the south Cornwall coast, and over
reliance of the nearby foggy north coast & hill top locations of
Camborne & St. Mawgan & Culdrose.
3. *The fine tuning (mentioned by Will) being done by a mentally
deficient monkey thoroughly p****d off by having to write Shakespeare.

Graham
Penzance

or, 4. simply the result of using nearby sea surface temperatures (i.e. air temps
over the sea) and a bad model-gridpoint to forecast-location interpolation scheme?

Roger- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

Roger,

It's funny you should say that, a couple of years ago I discovered
that they were using a grid point some way out to sea for the 5 day
CEEFAX forecasts, so the forecast maximum was always very close to the
SST. They also advised me against using the forecasts (honest!) and
also that they weren't responsible for how the BBC used them.

The system must have changed because the figures are more variable
now, but seem to take no account of aspect. So much so that the
forecast temperatures on the north coast this morning which actually
higher than on the south coast. Yesterday the temperatures forecasts
were virtually identical on both coasts, despite it reaching 16-17C on
the south, and around 11C on the north.

Graham
Penzance