On Apr 7, 5:26*pm, Richard Dixon wrote:
On 7 Apr, 16:01, Dawlish wrote:

The operational run is the one that the computer
has selected as the most likely to achieve outcome and even that is
often hopelessly wrong at 10 days and each single operational run has
a very low probability of achieving outcome.

It's very difficult to interpret the output from the ensembles in the
GFS when they're run at a different resolution to the operational run.
On occasions the operational run can be completely different to the
ensembles which renders the whole thing useless and just highlights
the role of model resolution on forecast accuracy !

Richard

Absolutely true. Thank you Richard. The 4, daily, gfs runs are of
differing resolution and are also run with different perameters,
That's why the coincidence of 5 consecutive runs producing very
similar output is impossible for me to ignore.

Paul