On Apr 7, 1:58*pm, "Norman" normanthis...@thisbitweather-
consultancy.com wrote:
Dave R. wrote:
Another run with hints of a warming, but a subtly different set-up and
the outside chance of a plume heading our way.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1802.png
Still not enough confidence for any kind of forecast at T240. This
mildness has come in under my radar. Some warmth would be very
welcome, though.
Paul
Wow that looks fantastic I hadn't seen that one at the wetterzentrale
site and only have to wait until the 12th! fingers crossed and thks
Dave R.
The 06Z GFS ensemble mean show 850 mb temps rising only to around
average in the south of the British Isles, implying daytime max temps
probably around 10-12c. The 850mb ensemble for London can be found at
* * * * * * *http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/MT8_London_ens.png
The 06z GFS operational run is on the warm side of the ensemble mean.
Norman
--
Norman Lynagh
Chalfont St Giles, Buckinghamshire
85m a.s.l.
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ECM now seems to be showing those SW winds at 8 days. Darren has
highlighted that in his analysis this morning. Excellent agreement in
the ensembles to 6 days out, then spaghetti. It illustrates well what
I was saying in my last post about forecast accuracy falling off
quickly from 5 days to 10 days out.
Nothing markedly warm in today's output, but a warming, nevertheless.
It will feel springlike in those, now likely, mild South-Westerlies in
the early part of next week. Nothing particularly settled either,
Those unstable, flabby areas of low pressure could give some soakings
in slow-moving showers. If the present forecast lows move East, we'd
be back into cool Northerlies and North-westerlies.
In April, the onset of "spring" often proves to be temporary though.
Hints of cooler again at the edge of reality!
Paul
PS 18C in Exeter, guys!! I was there in that 18C (ish) and the smiles
on the faces of the shoppers were really nice to see. 18C and sunny,
in April, is most people's idea of perfect weather! I'll side with
that majority and say that Autumn can stay as a spectre on the distant
horizon, when looking from the perspective of April!