Roger Coppock wrote:
On Apr 9, 2:33 pm, Peter Franks wrote:
Roger Coppock wrote:
MARCH TIED FOR WARMEST ON NASAs 129-YEAR NORTHERN HEMISPHERE RECORD.
Basic greenhouse gas physics from MIT.
http://www-paoc.mit.edu/labweb/notes/chap2.pdf
Despite fossil fool lies,
global mean surface temperatures continue to rise.
These hemispherically averaged temperature data come from NASA:
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata/NH.Ts.txt
They represent the results of tens of millions of readings
taken at thousands of stations covering the lands of the Northern
Hemisphere over the last 129 years. Yes, the data are corrected
for the urban heat island effect.
The Mean March temperature over the last 129 years is 14.047 C.
The Variance is 0.25258.
The Standard Deviation, or SIGMA, is 0.5026.
Rxy 0.762625 Rxy^2 0.581597
TEMP = 13.378035 + (0.010293 * (YEAR-1879))
Degrees of Freedom = 127 F = 176.535308
Confidence of nonzero correlation = approximately
0.9999999999999999999999999 (25 nines), which is darn close to 100%!
The month of March in the year 2008,
is linearly projected to be 14.706,
yet it was 15.4. -- 1.4 SIGMA above projected.
The sum of the residuals is 32.79756
Exponential least squares fit:
TEMP = 13.390381 * e^(.0007268 * (YEAR-1879))
The sum of the residuals is 32.65656 - Compare with linear!
(Smaller residuals means a better fit.
A two degree of freedom exponential fits better than
a two degree of freedom linear.)
Rank of the months of March
Year Temp C Anomaly Z score
2008 15.40 1.353 2.69 -- !
2002 15.40 1.353 2.69
1990 15.36 1.313 2.61
2004 15.21 1.163 2.31
2007 15.16 1.113 2.21
2000 15.11 1.063 2.12
2005 15.09 1.043 2.08
2001 14.98 0.933 1.86
1997 14.98 0.933 1.86
2006 14.93 0.883 1.76
1981 14.90 0.853 1.70
1998 14.89 0.843 1.68
2003 14.77 0.723 1.44
. . .
MEAN 14.047 0.000 0.00
. . .
1899 13.51 -0.537 -1.07
1897 13.49 -0.557 -1.11
1911 13.46 -0.587 -1.17
1909 13.44 -0.607 -1.21
1887 13.41 -0.637 -1.27
1908 13.39 -0.657 -1.31
1912 13.37 -0.677 -1.35
1884 13.36 -0.687 -1.37
1917 13.28 -0.767 -1.53
1886 13.19 -0.857 -1.71
1888 13.16 -0.887 -1.77
1896 13.15 -0.897 -1.78
1892 13.07 -0.977 -1.94
1898 13.01 -1.037 -2.06
The most recent 172 continuous months, or 14 years and 4 months,
on this NH.Ts.txt data set are all above the 1951-1980
data set norm of 14 C.
There are 1539 months of data on this data set:
-- 783 of them are at or above the norm.
-- 756 of them are below the norm.
This run of 172 months above the norm is the result of a warming
world. It is too large to occur by chance at any reasonable level
of confidence. A major volcano eruption, thermonuclear war, or
meteor impact could stop this warming trend for a couple of years,
otherwise expect it to continue.
What caused the Little Ice Age?
I can say with certainty that the little ice
age was caused by big morons who post off topic.
You can quote me on this.
That is not a scientific response. The question is honest and valid,
and more importantly, relevant to your original posting.
Unfortunately, I can only conclude that either you are not a scientist,
or are one of those that can't be bothered in their perception to stoop
to discussions that they don't control in entirety.