...Weather Forecasting reaching 'Dizzying' Heights!
jonathan wrote:
"Ian Parker" wrote in message
...
On 5 Apr, 19:01, (Rand Simberg) wrote:
On Sat, 5 Apr 2008 13:53:23 -0400, in a place far, far away, "Terrell
Miller" made the phosphor on my monitor glow
I had nothing to say about long-term global warming. I was simply
pointing out that Jonathan's thesis that it is causing more intense
hurricanes *now* is lunacy.- Hide quoted text -
- Show quoted text -
I am not so sure, the oceans are a complex entity. There is surface
water and deep water. The oceans apparently cool when cold deep water
reaches the surface. This is the origin of El Nino type effects. Thus
we can have a long term trend of ocean warming with drops in surface
temperature.
What the effect on hurricanes is not at all clear. In a hurricane deep
water (intermediate level) is forced to the surface by high winds. The
effect of temperatures 100-200m down on the development of hurricanes
is unknown. In any event the drop in SST is only a temporary blip. In
e few years time temperatures will be up again.
It is self evident that hurricane formation is related to vapor
pressure.
Why do we make these things more complicated than they need to be?
The underlying concept of global warming is that the weather will become
more chaotic as the planet warms. Which of course means greater volatility
and...less predictability. Small thinkers like Rand want ....proof...when the
expected effect is for the established patterns to become LESS predictable.
Rands and his like want to be shown proof of unpredictability.
OK! Proof of global warming is found in forecasters having
less and less idea what the hell is going to happen next, except
they know it'll be stronger or weaker than normal. Or maybe
not.
In other words....they'll know...next to nothing.
I see..... OK fine.... if you can't predict the weather, that proves
that you predicted the weather?
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