I was tickled by the words of Cleveland Abbe written some 107 years
back probably after a joint initiative between Britain and The USA, to
denounce any foolish idea that there might be a more practical method
for determining weather trends.

This is from the 25th August edition of The New York Times. First the
piece I originally posted and which raised the ire of uk.sci.weather's
resident BBC shill and media sentry: t'wit "DaveR"

“Anyone can make a weather prediction if he understands the weather
chart. There is nothing hidden about it. The United States Government
contributes its predictions and its information to all who will
receive them.

We adjure every one, therefore, with brains enough to come in out of
the rain when it comes, not to allow himself to be particeps criminis,
as it were, by contributing to the coffers of the worst frauds in the
Nation”

I am guessing the author of the quote but it appeared in an article
from The New York Times. Published August 25 1901.

Ah, the days of innocence.
http://query.nytimes.com/gst/abstrac...9C94 6097D6CF

A PDF I'm afraid and also under copyright despite the probable demise
of the author. (Who probably never had any such claims to his own
estate.)

*****

And here is the gist of what the Weather Man as Mr Abbe was referred
to in those happier times, actually said:

“There·is more bald-faced faking done in this business than in any
other.”So spake the Weather Man. He was just beginning to puzzle
himself over the incipient hurricane in the Lesser Antilles last week
and to wonder whether it would reach New York.

The storm might reach the Atlantic seaboard within a day or so, or it
might not.

The Weather Man, with all the science of meteorology at his command,
with all the experience of the thirty years history of the Weather
Bureaux ready for his reference, couldn't tell just what this storm
would do during the next forty·eight hours of its career. Hence he
seemed a little exasperated that weather “prophets" with no science to
hold them up, with no elaborate records to guide them should presume
to foretell months in advance just what the snow, the wind and the
rain should do.

“Do you suppose that if these fellows really knew anything about
weather, that the bureau would allow them to work independently of it
for a day?” he queried.

"A man who can accurately foretell the state of the weather for two
months hence can get his own price from the United States Government.
Struggle as we may, we can't predict with accuracy for more than
thirty-six hours ahead and we have at our beck and call all the
science that observation of years has been able to accumulate.

As a matter of fact there is no scientific possibility of foretelling
what the weather will do more than two or three days beforehand. Upon
what these charlatans base their predictions, it is impossible to
state. They may base them upon the phases of the moon.

Perhaps this is not so far wrong, apparently, because the moon's
phases change every seven days and this is just about the period of
storm recurrence. There is no possible connection between the two; it
is simply a coincidence.

Some of the charlatans claim that they obtain insight into the future
weather conditions from the sun spots, which become frequent upon the
solar surface about every eleven years.

It is true that there is a relation between sunspots and magnetic
conditions of the earth but no relationship has as yet been
scientifically established between the weather and magnetic conditions
on this planet.

As for the stars, they have no possible connections with
meteorological conditions here and it is the merest folly to presume
to base any weather prediction upon their changes and movement. Stars
have no more connection with the climate than they have with the every-
day occurrences in the lives of men and women.

The United States Weather Bureau takes observations every day at
stations ranging from Edmonton, in the Canadian Province of Alberta,
on the north-west; St.John's Newfoundland, on the north-east; the
island of Barbados on the south-east and Acapulco, on the south-west.

The observations of temperature, barometric pressure and rainfall are
all reported twice every day from each of these stations to the
central stations of the bureau and upon the basis of these
observations, forecasts are made. (Which of course, were forwarded by
telegraphic despatches having the right of way above everything else.)

The weather forecaster at a central station takes the observations and
makes up a. weather chart. On this chart he records the places where
the barometric pressure is the same and then lines (curves, called
isobars) are drawn through these points.

It will be found that there are certain areas of the country where the
barometric pressure is low, the lowest point being the centre of the
uneven circular figure made by the isobars. Adjacent to this low-
pressure area will be a high-pressure area, likewise indicated on the
weather chart by isobars.

The meaning of the expression "low pressure" is that the air in this
area is not so heavy comparatively as it is in the high-pressure area;
there is not such a. pressure upon the earth.

The tendency of the high-pressure areas, therefore, will be to divert
their heavy air to the place where the pressure is not so great. This
by an obvious law of mechanics. This movement of the air is what
causes winds. The forecaster can foretell that the low pressure area.
is to be affected by the winds from the high-pressure area.

The forecaster knows too, that high and low pressure areas drift
across the country from the west toward the east at the rate of about
600 miles daily; that the "highs"are attended by dry, clear and cooler
weather and that they are drawing down, by a vortical action of their
centres, the cold air from great altitudes above the clouds and
causing it to flow away laterally along the surface of the earth.

The "cold wave” comes when the high·pressure areas become so intense
in their vortical action that they draw down an unusual quantity of
cold air.

The forecaster knows, also from years of observation, that the "low
pressure" areas are generally accompanied by rainy and warmer weather,
and that the " high pressure " and "low pressure" areas follow each
other across the country at average intervals of about three days.

The study of the weather map each day, coupled with the knowledge of
past experience, enables the forecaster to tell, with reasonable
accuracy, what will happen in any given district within the next forty-
eight hours, No attempt is made to make definite predictions covering
a period of more than thirty six hours."

` The Weather Man then proceeded to show how the Weather Bureau of the
United States Government really conducted its business. He said that
meteorology must not he understood to be an exact science. A man's
experience and judgement are very material factors in determining his
capabilities as a weather forecaster. He has to make a. careful study
of conditions and base his predictions upon them.

“And these facts you may take as assured." he said. “The first is that
we never fail to give·warning of coming storms. Sometimes we may think
a storm is coming when lt doesn't materialise. But it is much better
to take heed against a storm that doesn't come than to be caught in
one that does come.

Millions upon millions of dollars have been saved from destruction on
the seas since the United.States Weather Bureau began sending out its
storm signals. The second important fact, which the layman seems to
take little notice of, ls that the Weather Bureau cares very little
whether it rains or not.

“It is impossible to accurately foretell showers. They make very
little difference to business or agriculture, anyway. Showers
generally benefit crops and they do not disturb trade. We have more
responsible business to look out for than to guarantee that the women
who venture out on a certain day do not get their feet wet”

************************************************** ************************************************** ***********************
And that, ladies and gentlemen was the state of play before the
Bjerknes School of thought. One might enquire why the only difference
between then and now is that they are beginning to understand the
impact of certain showers and are attempting to forecast them.

Their pursuit is called Storm Chasing and due to the parlous state of
play in these sophisticated times, is an exhilarating pass-time. It is
however only one particular type of shower that is being forecast and
that not very well, despite the amount of money sent west after it.